IPL 2023: Packed points table suggests we’re heading for a crazy finish

And so, once again, a league that brings together cricket fans like no other has people scratching their heads and wondering just what is going on. There are 17 league stage matches left in IPL 2023 and just two clear playoff teams in sight, given their ticks in the W column and the health of their respective squads. Usually by this time in the IPL, heading into the last two weeks before the playoffs, there is a clearer final-four scenario with at least a couple teams written off, but this year the situation is not as straightforward.

The last time an IPL points table was this tight was in 2020, when just two points separated the third to eighth-ranked teams. As it panned out then, when the league was split in two halves on account of the pandemic, Mumbai Indians topped the league stage with 18 points and only Delhi Capitals made it 16, with three teams stuck on 14 and three ending with 12. It came down to net run rate (NRR) that year, and looking at the IPL 2023 points table we seem to be heading to a similar conclusion.

To qualify for the IPL 2023 playoffs you need 18 points, but such is the closeness of the mid-point of the leaderboard that teams currently in the top four could quickly end up at eighth or ninth, given their predicament.

Technically, last-placed Delhi are still in the tournament with eight points and four matches remaining in the group stage of IPL 2023, as are the two teams just above them with the same amount of points, Sunrisers Hyderabad and Kolkata Knight Riders. Where once last season’s losing finalists Rajasthan Royals occupied the top spot for several days, they have been stuck at fourth for a while now and three defeats in a row have threatened to unravel their playoff plans.

Defending champions and league leaders Gujarat Titans look the team to beat, and after swatting aside Lucknow Super Giants by 56 runs on Sunday they need to win just one of their remaining three matches to secure passage to the playoffs. Chennai Super Kings, at second position with 13 points, can join Gujarat in the playoffs if they win two of their last three matches. Despite that massive defeat, LSG remain at third with 11 points from 11 matches but the challenge for the team missing KL Rahul is to stave off the challenge from Chennai Super Kings, Royal Challengers Bangalore, RR and Punjab Kings.

Rajasthan remain on 10 points from as many games, but a better net run rate (+0.388) than fifth-placed RCB (-0.209) gives them slender hope. To get back to winning ways, Rajasthan will have to address their death-overs bowling, following Jason Holder’s meltdown against Mumbai’s Tim David and Sandeep Sharma’s no-ball stunner with SRH needing 17 from the last over of the match on Sunday, which came after Kuldip Yadav conceded 24 from the penultimate over.

Mumbai, who have struggled to stitch together a winning run all tournament long, need to win three of four matches to make it to the playoffs. Three out of four should get them into third or fourth place, but if they lose two of these games then they would end up on 14 points, thus needing them to depend on RCB, PBKS and RR also losing two of their last four fixtures.

Typically veering from stunning to slapstick all season, PBKS remain in the chase as well with 10 points and four matches left, but as always, the question with this team remains: does it have the ability to keep it together in a must-win situation?

KKR need to win all four of their matches to get to 16 points, and then hope for favourable results elsewhere. A NRR of -0.103 does not help, and with so many misfiring players it appears an almost impossible task for KKR to make the playoffs. That last-ball win over RR has left Hyderabad’s flickering hopes intact, but such has been this franchise’s predicament that a winning mentality is sorely lacking. Teams that fail to put together three wins in a row often fall by the wayside, and this is where SRH look the weakest of all teams.

With four wins from their last five matches, Delhi are still alive. Four wins in a row would take them to 16 points, but David Warner’s team would also need other results to go their way.

If you want my opinion, I see LSG and RR falling out of the top four and further down the points table, Mumbai surging from five to third and DC taking the fight right to the doorstep of the IPL 2023 playoffs.